ASML scales back EUV production in Q4 on TSMC delay

ASML announced on its Q1 2026 earnings call a delay in EUV production for Q4, tied to TSMC’s decision to shift capital allocation away from the advanced N2 process node. For ASML itself the impact is material: TSMC is estimated to account for 35-40% of the EUV order book in 2026.

The delay follows TSMC’s pivot to N3 expansion in Arizona and Kumamoto, a capex choice that softens EUV demand in the near term. For ASML’s Q4 numbers, this means the consensus of 380-410 EUV deliveries comes under pressure.

The numbers behind the delay

The Q3 and Q4 2026 projections are now open. The analyst consensus around 380 for Q4 looks too optimistic given TSMC’s signals — a correction to 320-350 looks more likely, which would amount to a roughly €1.2-1.5 billion revision to annual revenue.

What this means for EU sovereignty

The Chips Act 2030 targets — 20% global semiconductor production in Europe — are becoming increasingly hard to hit. It is not a coincidence that the ECB issued a supervisory statement this month explicitly flagging concern about semiconductor supply-chain risk for the eurozone economies most exposed to it (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium).

For Belgium specifically: imec depends, through several spin-offs (XenomatiX, Septentrio, Pharrowtech), on a steady cadence of advanced wafer delivery. A 4-6 week delay in the lithography chain will materially affect these companies’ production roadmaps in H2 2026.